CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2023-05-05T08:12:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2023-05-05T08:12ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/24943/-1
CME Note: Halo CME associated with M2.1 flare from AR13296 (N15E30). From LASSOS team discussion: Arrival on 5/7 is indicated by a sheath crossing and high field strength. No flux rope is observed in this signature. (There could even be 2 iCMEs in this signature, potentially merged). Another candidate CME for this arrival could be 2023-05-04T09:09Z CME.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-05-07T13:20Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----
Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-05-08T00:48Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Prediction Method: EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
Prediction Method Note:
************************************************************************************** % Compiled module: EAM ************************************************************************************** Most pr. speed = 955.0 km/sec The EAM version you are running is: v3 Utilizing the upgraded version EAM_v3 [Paouris et al. 2021 - DOI: 10.1007/s11207-020-01747-4] u_r = 564.165 Acceleration: 0.666852 Duration in seconds: 232600.77 Duration in days: 2.6921386 t2 is negative ************************************************************************************** Acceleration of the CME: 0.67 m/s^2 Velocity of the CME at 1 AU: 719.3 km/s Expected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 08/05/2023 Time: 00:48 UT **************************************************************************************Lead Time: 14.45 hour(s)
Difference: -11.47 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Evangelos Paouris (JHUAPL) on 2023-05-06T22:53Z
CCMC
Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME
model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before
performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival
Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with
the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting
forecasters/researchers.
If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Policy